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Andrey Movchan is Founder at Movchan’s Group, a renowned economist and investment manager, and author of books and numerous articles and lectures on economics and finance.
The BRICS abbreviation brought together five diverse countries under the shared label of ‘emerging economies’, reflecting the expectation of strong future growth. What began as a term coined by commentators was soon embraced by the countries themselves, which started meeting regularly to develop dialogue and cooperation as economic partners and peers.
The BRICS countries are quite different economically, and Henley & Partners and AlphaGeo’s Global Investment Risk and Resilience Index highlights their striking dissimilarities. Among the core members, Russia and South Africa are mineral resource rich, with moderate levels of economic diversity.
Russia’s well-educated population and abundant oil and gas reserves make its economy resilient, with a total resilience score of 61.45 out of 100, which is classified as high, close behind Italy’s 61.9. However, risks such war-driven inflation, heavy dependence on China for trade, and a large portion of export income from oil push its total risk score to 39.92 (also high as for Risk, a lower score is better), worse than South Africa’s 35.18.
The combination of high risk and high resilience makes it difficult to predict the future of Russia’s currently stagnant economy, which looked very promising around the year 2000. The country could either see prosperity and growth in economic diversity and complexity or face long-term decline and structural crises. Much will depend on how and when the Russo-Ukrainian war ends, future oil prices over the next five to fifteen years, and China’s trajectory in the long term.
South Africa records a total resilience score of 46.2 out of 100 (medium) — reflecting not only its social and political challenges but also its structural economic vulnerabilities. The country remains heavily dependent on international trade, which accounted for 61.7% of GDP in 2024, and is further constrained by volatile climate conditions, limited economic diversification, a persistent current account deficit, and a weakening currency. Its risk score is 35.18 (high), underscoring the impact of political instability, very high crime levels, governance inefficiencies, and weak regulatory quality.
At the same time, South Africa’s role as a major supplier of mineral resources to China, India, Japan, and the USA, together with its advantageous maritime access and its dominant position in the Southern African region, offers a measure of strategic stability and a range of opportunities. However, unless the country can address its social issues, enhance governance quality, and diversify its economy, South Africa’s economic future looks rather gloomy.
China’s diverse economy, which is built on an abundance of relatively cheap and qualified labor but lacking in mineral resources, is experiencing a long boom that began in the late 1980s. According to the Global Investment Risk and Resilience Index, China’s total resilience score is 68.54 (high), which places it between Canada (68.8) and France (68.17).
While China’s position can be justified by its stable political system, low crime rates, huge positive current account surplus, low external debt-to-GDP ratio, high level of economic diversification, and vast foreign exchange reserves, it is worth bearing in mind that its export oriented economy is dependent on global demand trends and very sensitive both to global recessions and the rise of competitors (such as Vietnam and Indonesia).
Furthermore, rising labor costs are gradually making China less competitive, while centralized economic governance evidently has its flaws. Recent developments have revealed how excessive infrastructure expansion in China has become a liability rather than a driver of growth, how unrestrained stimulation of the residential real estate sector has spiraled into a nationwide debt crisis, and how restrictive economic policies have turned internal migrant workers into poor consumers, stifling the development of robust domestic markets.
As a result, China’s economic growth has slowed to approximately USD 700 per capita per year. Coupled with an aging population and a shrinking workforce, this trajectory increasingly resembles what many analysts refer to as the “Japanese scenario” — a prolonged period of economic stagnation driven by demographic decline, high debt levels, and slow growth, much like Japan’s experience since the 1990s. This trend is reflected in China’s total risk score of 31.57 out of 100 (medium), comparable to Papua New Guinea’s score of 30.95.
Brazil offers another example of a diversified economy, known not only for its meat industry but also its aircraft manufacturing sector. The country remains one of the world’s largest exporters of iron ore, bauxite, and coffee. While Brazil has historically benefited from a youthful demographic profile, recent data indicates that its youth and working-age populations are shrinking faster than anticipated — signaling the early onset of demographic aging that could gradually erode its long-term growth potential.
Despite its strong trade relationships with major global powers and a favorable geographic location connecting the Atlantic and South American markets, Brazil continues to grapple with deep-seated structural issues. Low productivity and severe social inequalities persist, with over 20% of the population living below the poverty line of USD 6 per day. Political instability further exacerbates economic uncertainty, as policy direction oscillates between quasi-socialist measures and complete neglect of social issues, between strengthening economic ties with developed economies and protectionist or confrontational stances, and between lenient and strict monetary policies.
These factors contribute to an unpredictable business environment that discourages foreign investment and fuels recurrent bouts of currency instability. Combined with rising budget deficits, mounting internal and external debt, and continued reliance on global commodity cycles, these dynamics constrain Brazil’s capacity for sustained and inclusive growth.
This is well reflected in the index, where Brazil’s total resilience score is 47.38 (medium) and its risk score is 37.21 (high), signaling systemic vulnerability to social, economic, and political shocks compared to other major emerging economies. Ultimately, the country’s economic future will depend on its ability stabilize policy direction, enhance productivity, and implement more effective mechanisms for social inclusion and wealth distribution. If these structural reforms can be achieved, Brazil possesses all the fundamental conditions to unlock a far more sustainable and prosperous future.
India has yet to define its long-term economic niche, pursuing development in multiple directions simultaneously. As the world’s most populous nation and a potential future labour powerhouse, India also remains one of the poorest globally, ranking 138th in GDP per capita, with average income levels standing at roughly 1/35th of those in the USA and 1/5th of China’s.
Despite seemingly high headline GDP growth, real expansion remains low when measured on a per capita basis — approximately USD 200 per person annually, which is just 1/3rd of China’s rate and 1/10th of that of the USA. The economy still relies heavily on agriculture, which contributes more than 16% of GDP, while efforts to build up the industrial sector continue to be hampered by excessive state involvement and the inefficiencies inherent in the country’s complex federal structure.
According to Henley & Partners and AlphaGeo’s Global Investment Risk and Resilience Index, India records a total resilience score of 49.76 (medium), the lowest among BRICS members, and a risk score of 40.91 (high), indicating elevated exposure to economic, regulatory, and political risks, placing the country alongside several lower middle income and volatile economies.
Nevertheless, India’s scale alone ensures that it will play an increasingly central role in the global economy. The challenge lies not in achieving growth, but in designing and implementing a sustainable path to broad-based prosperity — one that translates the country’s demographic potential and geographic advantage into tangible gains for its citizens.
The five core BRICS economies illustrate the remarkable diversity of agricultural and industrial profiles found across the emerging world. Together, they encapsulate nearly the full spectrum of advantages and vulnerabilities characteristic of economies in transition from developing status toward sustainable modernity. Their collective future remains difficult to predict, situated as it is at the delicate intersection where the potential for extraordinary success lies perilously close to the risk of profound failure.
Twenty years ago, in 2003, analysts from Goldman Sachs famously predicted that the BRICS economies would prosper by 2050. We now stand at the halfway point of that projection — a moment well suited to reassessing both the progress achieved and the formidable challenges that continue to define these pivotal economies.
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