Methodology Note: GIRRI Special Edition 2026

The Global Investment Risk and Resilience Index (GIRRI) ranks countries by combining two core dimensions: structural resilience — the long-term economic, institutional, and environmental strengths of a country — and sovereign risk, reflecting its exposure to political, financial, and external shocks.

The May 2026 Special Edition is not a new index, but a targeted stress test of the existing framework.

Rather than revising the underlying structure, we have held resilience constant and introduced a real-time update to the risk component using the latest available market data.

This update is based on Country Risk Premium (CRP) data as at 1 April 2026¹ — a market-derived measure that reflects how investors are currently pricing sovereign risk across countries. By incorporating CRP, the index captures how risk is being assessed in real time, rather than relying solely on slower-moving structural indicators.

The updated rankings therefore combine:

• long-term resilience fundamentals, which evolve gradually over time
• With real-time market signals, which adjust rapidly to geopolitical and economic developments

The result is a risk-adjusted lens on the existing index — not a replacement, but a way of understanding how the global landscape shifts when current market sentiment is overlaid onto structural strength.

A note on interpretation: movements in ranking reflect changes in relative positioning between countries, rather than absolute changes in risk or resilience. The focus of this edition is therefore on how the global order is being reshaped in real time, and how investors are responding to that shift.

The methodology for the GIRRI is available here.

Source

¹A. Damodaran. Country Default Spreads and Risk Premiums. NYU Stern School of Business, April 2026 pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/ accessed 8 April 2026