A Resilient MENA Region Confronts Global Uncertainty

The global economy has demonstrated surprising resilience amid persistent macro-economic uncertainty. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, there are signs of an improved economic outlook, and Gulf countries are propping up regional growth. MENA governments will continue to advance global wealth and talent attraction efforts to remain resilient and competitive in a fast-evolving international system.

More Wealth, More Talent

Gulf countries like the UAE have been making steady progress for years, offering attractive avenues for high-net-worth individuals and top talent to relocate to the country. The UAE boasts golden visas, other long-term residence pathways, and high livability ratings. Moreover, Emirati hubs for wealthy and highly skilled professionals — like the Dubai International Financial Centre and Abu Dhabi Global Market — are expanding rapidly to meet soaring demand.

Neighboring countries are adopting similar plans. In late 2025, Saudi Arabia launched a permanent residence pathway targeting experts in strategic sectors and building on its Premium Residency Law. Saudi Arabia’s updated investment law has helped to level the playing field between foreign and local investors. Additional foreign ownership reforms concerning real estate and Saudi-listed companies offer further incentives for investment migration.

Both Bahrain and Oman launched 10-year golden residence programs in 2025. Even Kuwait, which is not necessarily known for speedy policymaking, managed to roll out in late 2025 a new residence framework with long-term permits for up to 10 and 15 years. While Gulf governments prefer not to portray their economic policies in terms of competition with neighboring countries, there is clearly a regional race for global wealth and talent.

At the same time, examples of regional cooperation exist in other policy domains. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) reportedly approved a 'one-stop’ travel system, which includes an initial pilot phase before an expected rollout to all six member states. Thus, individuals living in GCC countries should expect streamlined mobility throughout the region.

More Reasons for Cautious Optimism

Beyond efforts to enhance regional connectivity, Gulf governments are positioning their countries to become global hubs for advanced technologies and other strategic industries. Technology, critical minerals, and advanced manufacturing are the new pillars supporting economic diversification. However, sustaining economic momentum while building expensive, cutting-edge industries is no easy task.

The oil price environment is prompting spending recalibrations and a reprioritization of development initiatives. Brent crude oil prices are expected to average USD 69 per barrel in 2025 and USD 55 per barrel in 2026, down from over USD 100 per barrel in 2022. Saudi Arabia reflects this associated mixture of promise — a massive economy undergoing an exciting transformation — and growing fiscal pressures owing to lower oil prices. According to estimates, the Saudi fiscal breakeven oil price stands at a much higher USD 94 per barrel and closer to USD 111 when sovereign wealth fund spending is taken into account.

Nearby Egypt appears to have navigated away from an economic downturn. Indeed, the International Monetary Fund has noted progress in Egypt’s economic trajectory and is likely to unlock more financing for the country. A multifaceted economic bailout, inflows of foreign capital, and falling interest rates have supported the Egyptian government’s economic policymaking.

The region’s myriad conflicts, tensions, and rivalries do pose a threat to wealth and talent attraction efforts and economic development plans. Yet an easing of regional conflicts over 2025 — including fragile ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon as well as a new political trajectory in Syria — offers some hope that conflict de-escalation will continue to gain steam throughout 2026.

Managing the Crucial Washington Nexus

The USA remains a vital partner for trade, investment, economic assistance, and defense and security in the Middle East. Regional leaders will therefore be frequent visitors to Washington over the coming year. Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa visited the White House in November 2025 and has demonstrated a keen ability to foster solid working relations with the Trump administration, which will be crucial for a permanent repeal of sanctions.

Later in November 2025, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman also undertook his first visit to the White House since 2017. The crown prince committed to investing around USD 1 trillion in the US economy and received a major non-NATO ally designation, alongside the announcement of other deals signifying the strong and growing ties between Riyadh and Washington.

Gulf countries — namely Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar — are working closely with the White House on defense and security arrangements, nuclear energy cooperation, critical minerals, and multifaceted economic engagement frameworks.

Advanced AI chips from US chipmakers are critical inputs for the region’s ambitious technology agendas and growing tech companies. US authorizations to export advanced chips to MENA’s leading tech firms — G42 and HUMAIN — are sure to please Gulf governments. Yet there is still more work to be done to clarify longer-term expectations around chip export licensing and approvals and streamlining the procurement process.

A Continued Belief in Multipolarity

While MENA officials consider partnerships with the US government and American companies a top priority, there is a widely held view in the region that the international system is increasingly multipolar. Many government and business actors will therefore keep diversifying foreign relations and economic partnerships.

Asia, Europe, and Africa will remain critical components of global engagement strategies emanating from the region. Blocs of countries that are not necessarily led by the USA — such as BRICS or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization — offer additional avenues of international influence for regional actors.

New groupings of countries without the USA or its strategic competitors are also emerging with the participation of MENA countries. The UAE announced a joint declaration with New Zealand, Switzerland, and Singapore establishing the Future of Investment and Trade Partnership. This new economic coalition of countries currently contains 14 members — including the North African country of Morocco — and focuses on open and fair trade, inclusive growth, and foreign direct investment flows.