The Return of Human Power

The past year was dominated by conversations about artificial intelligence, from the USA’s race toward general AI to China’s rapid commercialization of machine-learning applications. Yet paradoxically, the more breathless the headlines about digital futures became, the clearer it was that the true foundation of global mobility remains human intelligence: skilled and unskilled labor, demographic trends, migration flows, and the enduring power of the nation state. As geopolitical tensions harden and societies confront aging populations and technological disruption, competition for people — where they are born, where they move, and where they can thrive — is becoming a defining strategic variable of 2026.

The Nation State Reasserts Itself

Reports of the nation state’s demise were always premature. The political form we take for granted is relatively modern, forged out of the collapse of multiethnic empires in the late 19^th century and validated by the turbulent first half of the 20^th. What made the nation state compelling was its promise: that a community sharing language, norms, and culture could pool sovereignty to secure territory, generate prosperity, and shape a better future. That promise underpins the very notion of global mobility. Individuals move across borders because borders exist, and because political communities differ in their opportunities, rights, and obligations.

Globalization appeared to weaken that logic. The economic integration that followed the end of the Cold War, paired with the rise of the internet and frictionless communications, created the illusion that national distinctions mattered less than urban identities, professional networks, or membership in a borderless digital economy. For many in global cities, life resembled a shared cosmopolitan experience, even as industrial and rural communities absorbed the dislocations that made such mobility possible.

The return of geopolitical rivalry has shattered this illusion. Russia’s assertiveness, China’s centralization under Xi Jinping, Brexit’s redefinition of European politics, and the rise of populist governments in democracies across the world all signaled that states are not retreating actors but revived protagonists. Even the pandemic reinforced the trend, as ‘vaccine diplomacy’, border controls, and supply-chain nationalism re-centered state power. At the same time, new digital networks, like cryptocurrencies, decentralized finance, and AI-driven ecosystems, now challenge states from the outside. The strong performance of assets such as Bitcoin, gold, and safe-haven currencies reflects individuals hedging against the political volatility of their own governments.

A New Era of Competition for People

The most important shift for global mobility is that countries are no longer competing primarily for capital — they are competing for people. For decades, global talent largely flowed toward the USA and, to a lesser extent, Europe. World-class universities, deep labor markets, and broad immigration pathways made advanced economies magnets for the ambitious. That assumption no longer holds. Policies that restrict migration, reduce research funding, or politicize foreign student flows have prompted many to reconsider whether traditional destinations remain the optimal place to study, innovate, and build wealth.

At the same time, the demographic reality facing major powers is stark. Birth rates are declining across East Asia and Europe, and even large emerging markets are beginning to age before they fully industrialize. China’s pivot from a strict one-child policy to aggressive pro-natalism is symptomatic of a deeper anxiety: the fear of running out of workers before achieving national ambitions. Japan’s reconsideration of migration policy, once unthinkable, reflects a similar recognition that demographic decline is a strategic liability.

For globally mobile individuals, these shifts create both opportunity and uncertainty. Countries that once took talent for granted now compete to attract it through residence incentives, tax policy, or streamlined mobility programs. But the geopolitical stakes of that competition are rising. China’s recruitment of Taiwanese engineers, the outward migration of Ukrainian professionals reshaping Central Europe’s labor markets, and intra-Latin American mobility influencing electoral outcomes all demonstrate that the movement of people has become an instrument of statecraft. At the same time, a growing cohort of individuals treat borders as lifestyle variables rather than patriotic obligations, choosing jurisdictions based on climate resilience, personal freedom, or family considerations rather than national narratives.

What to Watch in 2026

Three forces will define the mobility landscape in the year ahead. The first is the maturation of regional economic blocs such as the US–Mexico–Canada Agreement, which is evolving into a North American competitiveness strategy rather than merely a trade pact. Firms relocating supply chains across the continent will accelerate cross-border mobility for both high-skill and industrial labor, reinforcing North America’s position as a global manufacturing hub.

The second is the geopolitical crossroads facing Eurasia. Russia’s capacity to sustain long-term confrontation is eroding, while Europe is transcending the caricature of its stagnation and beginning to rearm, invest, and coordinate at levels unimaginable a decade ago. Europe may not become a cohesive geopolitical superpower, but its resurgence will affect capital flows, migration pathways, and mobility preferences for millions.

The third is the shift from AI hype to robotics adoption. As wages rise and labor shortages intensify, countries that deploy robotics at scale will generate new competitive advantages and new anxieties. Automation may not meaningfully reverse demographic decline, but it will shape which societies can maintain productivity without relying exclusively on immigration.

Inflation and growth dynamics will overlay all these shifts. Whether advanced economies face mild inflation, cyclical recession, or renewed investment booms, mobility decisions will reflect where individuals believe their skills hold the most long-term value.

Human Capital as the New Geopolitics

Artificial intelligence may have dominated headlines in 2025, but the story of 2026 is ultimately about human beings. Nation states are reasserting authority, not fading away. Demographic scarcity is becoming a strategic constraint and mobility is emerging as the central mechanism through which individuals and governments alike navigate an increasingly fragmented world. In a world captivated by machines, it is human power that remains the scarcest and most valuable resource of all.