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Annie Pforzheimer is a retired senior career US diplomat, Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and a public commentator and consultant on foreign policy. She teaches international relations at the City University of New York and Pace University.
The Trump administration continues to make sweeping changes to immigration rules, visa regulations, and border requirements, increasing fees and tightening security-related controls, while the number of international visitors to the USA declined in 2025. As one of the 2026 FIFA World Cup co-hosts, the USA has promised to expedite visa interview appointments for millions of fans. Meanwhile, a ‘golden visa’ affording US residence has been rolled out with some uncertainties and possible legal challenges, while the equivalent Canadian investor visa process has been suspended after being plagued by delays, paving the way for a new, targeted pilot program later this year.
The US travel association publicized statistics at the beginning of October indicating that travel in 2025 would be around 85% of 2019 levels, with travel-related spending forecast to fall 3.2% from the year before. The association noted that the main driver of the decline was a significant reduction in Canadian travel, while visitors from other nations remained around 2024 levels. An October Canadian government report showed that trips to the US fell for eight consecutive months in 2025, with air travel down 27% and car trips down by 35%. Those traveling by land are encountering new border control requirements, including fingerprinting, that came into place on 26 December 2025.
The Trump administration continues to tighten rules for non-immigrant visa issuances. The US Department of State announced on 8 January 2026 that its non-immigrant visa bond program, introduced in 2025 on the grounds of overstay rates by visitors, had been extended to 38 countries. Effective 21 January 2026, passport holders from an additional 25 countries will be required to post a bond for USD 5,000, USD 10,000, or USD 15,000, with the amount being determined at the time of the visa interview.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) proposed in early December a new rule that would require visa holders and travelers from visa waiver countries to supply information about their social media postings, biometrics, and outbound travel. Visa applicants are also likely to be asked to demonstrate ability to pay for their own medical care during their visit to the USA, while applicants for many student and work visas will face enhanced screening of their online presence, including undefined categories of “censorship” against what is considered protected speech in the country.
The rollout of a USD 100,000 H-1B visa fee, announced in September, has proceeded with clarifying information released in October by the DHS Citizenship and Immigration Service. The fee will apply to petitions filed after 21 September 2025 for new employees who are overseas but does not apply to H1-B employees extending their status or to nonimmigrants (such as students) already in the USA and petitioning to change their status to H-1B. The change is not popular with many businesses and may prove harmful to US talent retention. The US Chamber of Commerce filed a lawsuit against the new fee, claiming that it is prohibitively expensive for small and medium-sized businesses and citing the existing immigration law requirement that visa fees be based on the processing costs incurred by the government. Meanwhile, Canada reportedly intends to streamline immigration processes for global skilled workers to attract those negatively impacted by changing US policies.
While border controls and visa regulations remain a political priority for the Trump administration, the US travel and tourism industry — alongside multiple state and city governments — is hoping for a financial boost from the country’s co-hosting of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The tournament will be staged across 11 US cities, with millions of tickets being sold. However, lengthy visa wait times and the June and December 2025 travel bans against passport holders from 39 countries and the Palestinian Authority — including four World Cup qualifiers — risk undermining attendance. These restrictions could lead to empty stadium seats and a blow to ticket sales and related visitor revenues that boosters hoped would exceed USD 30 billion. Compounding these concerns, the head of the White House task force overseeing the World Cup has confirmed that the Trump administration has not ruled out immigration enforcement actions against fans attending the tournament.
In November, the US government announced a new fast-track visa appointment process for the World Cup. In keeping with US law, the process does not guarantee visa issuance or entry upon arrival at a US airport. Reportedly, more consular officers have been deployed to key countries to facilitate adjudications, and a cable sent to US embassies in December gave further guidance on prioritizing visa appointments for ticket holders.
The much awaited ‘golden’ visa for individual investors and businesses was rolled out in December, with the first step requiring an application and a non-refundable USD 15,000 fee. Businesses would be able to use the program to enable employees to live and work in the USA without navigating separate procedures such as H-1B visas, while individual applicants would be granted residency conditions similar to those under existing EB visa categories.
A key open question is whether the program usurps the normal power of Congress to set immigration law, particularly with respect to the creation of new visa or permanent residency categories. The initiative apparently hopes to avoid such a concern by treating the sizeable fee as proof of “eligibility” under existing investor visa categories. A parameter of the more expensive version of the visa includes a promise of tax exemption, which may depend on federal, state, and local tax laws. The overall legal ambiguity of the ‘golden’ visa is coupled with the fact that, given its strong political identification, it could be dismantled by a future US administration.
Meanwhile, applicants for Canada’s equivalent investor status (the Start-Up Visa) face unusually long wait times — up to a decade — reflecting the program’s post-pandemic surge in popularity and a processing backlog that is in part to due inadequate staffing in addition to the complexity of the cases, and oversubscription to categories with annual caps. At the end of 2025, the Canadian government stopped accepting new applications (but will continue to process those it has received) and plans in 2026 to launch a “new, targeted pilot program for immigrant entrepreneurs”.
Dynamics to watch in the USA as the year unfolds are the consequential mid-term elections for Congress in November and the question of what balance will be struck between the security dimension of immigration versus the economic needs of the US travel industry, key tourism-dependent cities and regions, and businesses that rely on foreign workers. Absent any changes to current policies, tourism by high-spending Asian and European visitors may continue to decline, and Canadian travel is likely to remain low. The treatment of visitors during the World Cup will be decisive for any rebound in the industry in general and the success of the 2028 Olympics in particular. Highly skilled workers and high-net-worth individuals will seek legal clarity in the H-1B and golden visa categories before deciding where to take their talent and investments.
Henley & Partners assists international clients in obtaining residence and citizenship under the respective programs. Contact us to arrange an initial private consultation.
