Callback
Contact
+1 514 288 1997
Annie Pforzheimer is a retired career diplomat with the personal rank of Minister Counselor from the Department of State, a Senior Non-Resident Associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, an Adjunct Professor at the City University of New York, and a public commentator and consultant on foreign policy issues.
Since the January 2025 inauguration of the second Trump administration, both legal and questionably legal barriers to travel and temporary residence in the USA have been enacted. For globally mobile individuals, these developments raise red flags about the openness and predictability of the USA. While America remains a sought-after destination for capital, education, and opportunity, recent trends signal a more volatile environment for cross-border engagement in all of these sectors. Government officials are taking an interest in social media and political positions of students, and even tourists. The economic impact of overseas travelers avoiding the USA could be grave. Travel abroad by US citizens might be impacted if they default to a stay-home approach given fear of international backlash and growing economic uncertainties. At the same time, the Trump administration has touted the creation of a streamlined investor ‘golden’ visa, although it does not yet legally exist, and issuances of EB-5 visas are on the rise.
Since his first day of office on 20 January, US President Donald Trump has prioritized closing America’s borders, ramping up the deportation of those found to be resident illegally (or whose visa status could be changed through unilateral action), and in general pushing against any legal restrictions to his executive power to carry out new policies in the area of immigration, where the President already has wide authority on the grounds of national security. An unprecedented ban or partial restriction on travelers from 19 countries was announced on 4 June, taking effect on 9 June. The ban is criticized as both racist and anti-Muslim, and may be challenged, but for the time being it will impact travelers with almost any kind of non-immigrant visa as well as most intending immigrants. An explanation of the ban’s applicability can be found here.
Those applying for visas to work or live in the USA may now find it far more difficult than in the past, and even valid entry documents are no guarantee of smooth arrivals. Tourists, students, and even permanent residents have been questioned, harassed, detained, and turned away from US airport and land borders, and stories are circulating of their harsh treatment. At the end of May, the Trump administration paused student visa interviews pending further review of social media disqualifications. There are multiple reports of border officials scrutinizing travelers’ devices and denying entry on the basis of social media postings. Student visas are being revoked on a variety of grounds relating to laws dating from the 1950’s restricting political behavior while in student status, or owing to former legal infractions. In a sweeping move attempting to punish Harvard University, President Trump denied its legal right to accept foreign students. That action is being fought in court.
Deportation or forced departures of those who are in the country illegally are accelerating, in part because the definition of ‘illegal’ actions has been extended to include any action out of compliance with visa conditionality. Even within the USA, travelers may be subject to warrantless questioning about their legal status if they are within 100 miles of a land border or the entire US coastline. The swiftness of the enforcement has at times outpaced legal remedies and harmed those caught in its implementation. To date, many of the most severe government restrictions on visitors and students have centered on pro-Palestinian activism or possible affiliation with ‘terrorists’, including newly designated Latin American gangs.
Reacting to a combination of concern and anger at increasingly hostile US rhetoric and actions against its own allies, particularly Canada and members of the European Union, some travelers from countries that traditionally produce large numbers of tourists are re-thinking their potential visits to the USA. Some estimates include up to USD 90 billion in lost revenue in 2025. Oxford Economics predicts a 9% drop in international visitors in the USA this year, which is borne out by US statistics, which show a 7% drop in arrivals in April 2025 compared to the same month in 2024. April 2025 was also the fourth month of declining Canadian travel to the USA — now 35% lower than it was a year ago. The Chinese government has officially warned students and tourists about travel to America in view of the “deteriorating relationship” between the two countries, while a number of countries have issued travel advisories for their citizens going to the USA, based on a new US rule that no longer accepts a transgender designation in a foreign passport.
The US Travel Association sounded a warning in late March that “the travel industry is seeing concerning trends in both domestic and international-inbound travel… [due to] a variety of factors, including a strong dollar, long visa wait times, concerns over travel restrictions, a question of America’s welcomeness, a slowing U.S. economy and recent safety concerns. These challenges are real and demand decisive action.” Travel is a USD 1.3 trillion yearly business supporting 15 million jobs, according to the Association. The World Travel and Tourism Council warned in May that the USA had a negative tourism trajectory, which would cost its economy billions, at a time when most other tourist destinations were seeing an upsurge in travel.
International business travel has not seen the same downward trend as leisure travel, reflecting the more complex rationale for those travelers, their distinct profiles, and a record of fewer problems with US immigration officials.
It is too soon to predict whether there will be a commensurate chill towards Americans traveling overseas as of the high summer season. Due to the Trump administration’s flirtation with worldwide tariffs and stock market jitters Americans are facing recession fears, so big purchases and luxuries such as overseas travel are often deferred. In addition, some may be concerned about international backlash against the current administration. In one anecdote, US travelers told a journalist of their plan to speak French to one another while in Mexico City to avoid being seen as Americans.
In February 2025, President Trump announced the advent of a new category of ‘Gold Card’ visas, ostensibly to replace the (still-existing) EB-5 category. The new visas cost USD 5 million each, versus the EB-5, which ranges from USD 800,000 to USD 1 million. The Gold Card reportedly would render its holder eligible to reside permanently in the USA, with a potential to apply for citizenship, although the rules are still murky given the likely need for Congressional approval. In March, the Treasury Secretary stated that he had already ‘sold’ 1,000 Gold Card visas and expected up to five million people to take advantage of it. These numbers are not separately reported by government websites, and as of June the card itself had not been legally established (it could require, among other things, a legislative change to the US tax code.) Meanwhile, EB-5 investor visa issuances continue and have hit a relatively accelerated pace, with Invest in the USA reporting over 12,500 issued in 2024, and for 2025 almost 8,000 as of 31 March, the latest data available.
Political cycles since the USA was founded include periods of profound internal debate over the place of immigrants in US society, often after surges in immigrant arrivals. In this regard, demonstrable 2024 voter support for anti-immigrant policies, coupled with broad technological tools at the administration’s disposal, are leading to particularly draconian anti-immigrant and anti-traveler procedures for some external visitors and even permanent residents. It is unclear when, or whether, there will be any pushback by those who value the economic importance of the travel industry, America’s international reputation for hosting tourists, students, and businesspeople, and the overall importance of international immigration.
Henley & Partners assists international clients in obtaining residence and citizenship under the respective programs. Contact us to arrange an initial private consultation.
