The Gulf Wealth Boom: Opportunity and Risk

The story of the Gulf’s emergence as one of the world’s most attractive destinations for wealth migration has become familiar. It is natural to wonder whether the US–Iran war will undermine and reverse these trends. It would be foolishly optimistic to forecast no impact, and it would be surprising if the UAE maintained its ranking as the world’s top millionaire magnet this year. However, the Gulf has proved remarkably resilient in the face of an historic shock, something its wealthy residents may view positively, and policymakers are likely to be even further incentivized to ensure they continue to feel welcome.

The Boom Years

Until the early years of the 21^st century, migrants to the Gulf were largely viewed as temporary workers, making up for a shortage in labor and skills as the region developed its hydrocarbon sector and then invested the proceeds to develop the living standards of its citizen populations. Residency was tightly linked to employment, under the kafala sponsorship system, and states fluctuated between encouraging migration and implementing nationalization drives, as I explored in a recent paper about the evolving role of migrants in economic visions.

The big shift happened in Dubai, which began to see migrants themselves as the source of its prosperity, not merely as the workforce to generate it. It wanted them to put down roots and invest, and so introduced the region’s first residency visas linked to property ownership and investment in 2002. Together with a widening of property ownership options, this contributed to the first major real estate boom, and it was gradually replicated in most other Gulf states. Then came a steady liberalization of employment-linked visas to facilitate job mobility until the UAE announced its Golden Visa in 2018, providing a wide range of migrants with long-term residency options; Saudi Arabia and Bahrain soon launched similar initiatives.

A parallel development was an increasingly sophisticated financial services ecosystem, supported by enabling regulation, favorable jurisdictions, and a critical mass combining sovereign, domestic, and foreign wealth. Despite the success of Dubai International Financial Center, there was still scope for the dramatic expansion of Abu Dhabi Global Market in recent years, as well as offerings in Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Most recently, in January 2026, Oman International Financial Centre was established. The opportunities for long-term residency in low-tax jurisdictions with a high quality of life, phenomenal international connectivity, and world-class financial services have all contributed to the boom in wealthy migration to the Gulf.

Stability Shaken but not Shattered

The Gulf’s stability was another factor contributing to the wealth boom. The region has been a haven, whether for those fleeing tax changes in the UK or conflict in Russia. Iran’s attacks on the Gulf states in response to the US–Israeli assault eroded the perception of stability. This certainly led to an initial outflow of people with the freedom to depart during the hot phase of the conflict, before the ceasefire on 8 April. The sounds of missiles being intercepted and the damage caused by debris or penetrations were initially disturbing for residents of the major Gulf cities, particularly strikes on several hotels and airports.

Although over 30 people were killed in Gulf states, these casualties occurred among workers in industrial zones and ports, as well as security personnel. These losses underscored the human cost of the conflict. At the same time, the effectiveness of air defenses meant that the direct impact on residential areas and major urban centers remained limited. From the perspective of expatriates and investors, this helped preserve perceptions of personal safety despite heightened geopolitical tensions.

The truth is that nowhere is free of risk. Terrorist attacks occur periodically in many of the world’s major cities, and everyday violent crime is far higher in most of them than in the Gulf cities. This means that the impact of the war on wealth migration could ultimately prove limited, particularly if a peace agreement is secured that reduces perceptions of the risk of future conflict.

Economic Resilience Amid Disruption

Despite the closure of Hormuz for more than three months, forecasts by the IMF and credit rating agencies suggest that the economic impact on the GCC will be surprisingly limited and containable. A reduction in oil output, which drags on real GDP, is unavoidable. However, for most countries, public revenue projections have changed only modestly compared with pre-war levels and, in several cases, such as Saudi Arabia, are expected to be stronger. The IMF’s inflation forecasts have been raised by only 0.5 percentage points.

There are several reasons for this relatively mild outlook. First, high oil prices are offsetting reduced export volumes for countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have ways to bypass Hormuz. Even states that are completely shut in and dependent on the Strait, such as Kuwait and Qatar, could benefit from elevated oil and gas prices for a prolonged period after it reopens.

Second, impressive efforts have been made to redirect non-oil trade by land and air, resulting in modest price increases but otherwise containing the economic impact of the shipping disruption. This has created opportunities for locations such as the UAE’s Khor Fakkan port, Oman, and Jeddah, which in recent years had diminished in commercial importance relative to Riyadh.

Third, authorities have acted swiftly to mitigate potential second-order effects, drawing on elements of the Covid-era playbook. Measures have included expanding liquidity facilities offered by central banks and providing targeted support, such as deferring certain taxes and fees for affected sectors. The Gulf states have also built up strong buffers of international reserves and sovereign wealth that offer them fiscal space and policy flexibility during the current crisis.

Building Back Better

Some measures have also been directed specifically at the concerns of wealthy migrants. Notably, the UAE has signaled leniency on the implementation of its usual tax residency rules for individuals who may be out of the country longer than intended because of the war. Additional measures may follow to signal commitment to migrants. Emirati thought leader Sultan Al Qassemi has noted the positive structural responses to previous crises and called for a fresh wave of reforms, including the expansion and streamlining of the Golden Visa program. A cooling of some of the region’s most overheated property markets could also enhance its appeal to prospective migrants, as the surge in recent years had begun pricing out all but the super-rich.

Alongside policy reforms, the aftermath of the conflict is likely to result in a fresh wave of investment in new infrastructure and initiatives to revive the region’s momentum, including doubling down on AI investment plans. This could create opportunities for investors while further strengthening the region’s already compelling quality-of-life proposition. The Gulf states are also likely to continue diversifying their international relationships and connectivity as they carve out their roles in an increasingly multipolar world. This, in turn, could broaden their appeal to a wider range of internationally mobile individuals.

An interim peace agreement was announced on 14 June, but even in the best-case scenario it will take several months to achieve a durable deal. Until then, both sentiment and oil prices are likely to continue to swing back and forth on an almost daily basis. However, barring a renewed escalation of conflict or a protracted closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf is likely to emerge from the crisis looking stronger than many might have expected, and retaining much of its appeal as a destination for wealthy migrants.